Policy work

I contribute regularly to policy work at EBRD and other international institutions, and write policy-focused pieces in a variety of outlets. This page provides publicly available material that I’ve worked on.

I regularly (co-)author chapters in EBRD’s annual flagship report on the economics of transition and development. The Transition Report contains thematic analyses of issues related to emerging markets. For example, my chapters in the 2015-16 report demonstrated the significant role of private equity in contributing to business dynamism in emerging markets.

A brief summary of the EBRD Transition Report 2015-16 was published as a VoxEU column.

  • State Banks on the Rise

    Chapter 3 of EBRD Transition Report 2020-21

    (joint with Ralph De Haas, Ebru Isleyen, and Victoria Robinson)

    View EBRD Transition Report 2020-21 – View Chapter 3

    The banking sector is perhaps the area where the state has struck back most clearly in recent years. State banks have become increasingly important in many economies in the EBRD regions, growing their assets almost twice as fast as private banks. This report discusses both positive and negative aspects of that development.

  • Coronavirus credit support: Don’t let liquidity lifelines become a golden noose

    VoxEu article

    (joint with Ralph De Haas, Helena Schweiger, and Alexander Stepanov)

    View VoxEu article

    As lockdown measures are relaxed only gradually, many small businesses continue to experience significantly reduced turnover. We report on a firm-level analysis across 16 emerging markets, and three Western European comparator countries, in order to gauge the potential risks associated with debt-driven COVID-19 support. The overall goal is to prevent a wave of bankruptcies that could break valuable relationships between firms and their suppliers and employees. However, liquidity support in the form of additional bank lending may create debt-overhang problems in the future and therefore requires careful targeting.

  • Jobs at risk: Policy responses to COVID-19 in emerging markets

    VoxEu article

    (joint with Zsoka Koczan and Alexander Plekhanov)

    View VoxEu article

    Small businesses, especially in retail and services sectors, which account for the vast majority of employment in the European region, have borne the brunt of the COVID-19 crisis. We provide estimates of job displacement and survey the policy measures taken by 38 emerging economies in Europe, Central Asia, and the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean in response to the economic disruptions.

  • Firm-level Governance

    Chapter 3 of EBRD Transition Report 2019-20

    (joint with Gian Piero Cigna, Pavle Djuric, and Stefan Pauly)

    View EBRD Transition Report 2019-20 — View Chapter 3

    Chapter 3 discusses the importance of corporate governance and examined the ways in which shareholders, companies’ boards and managers can work together to maximise the value of firms. The chapter draws on the novel Corporate Governance Sector Assessment conducted by the EBRD, as well as a wealth of firm-level data on management practices and the use of senior managers’ time that has been collected as part of the latest wave of Enterprise Surveys.

  • Firm Dynamics and Productivity

    Chapter 2 of EBRD Transition Report 2017-18

    (joint with Orkun Saka)

    View EBRD Transition Report 2017-18 — View Chapter 2

    Chapter 2 takes an in-depth look at the factors underlying productivity slow-downs in the EBRD region and other emerging markets. It discusses the effectiveness of various policies in terms of avoiding such a slow-down as countries transition from low-income to high-income status.

  • The Middle Income Trap from a Schumpeterian Perspective

    Background paper for Asian Development Outlook 2017

    (joint with Philippe Aghion)

    View Asian Development Outlook 2017

    We provide an outline for viewing the middle-income trap through the lens of the Schumpeterian growth paradigm, which places the notion of creative destruction at the center of economic growth. Economic growth and development come from the interplay between changes in economic structure and supporting institutions at different stages of development, i.e., structural transformation. We present a view of the process of economic development that takes the microlevel growth of firms and their competitive interaction as its building blocks. We discuss how institutional factors affect the evolution of these building blocks in understanding growth outcomes at different stages of development.

     

  • Trends and Value Creation in Private Equity

    Chapter 3 of EBRD Transition Report 2015-16

    (joint with Markus Biesinger)

    View EBRD Transition Report 2015-16 — View Chapter 3

    The private equity sector has grown steadily across the transition region over the last two decades, in terms of both the volume of assets that it manages and the impact that it has on local economies. However, private equity remains an underutilised source of external funding for companies in the EBRD region. This chapter considers how private equity funds could help contribute to more diverse financial infrastructure, thereby stimulating growth and efficiency improvements.

  • Private Equity as a Source of Growth

    Chapter 4 of EBRD Transition Report 2015-16

    (joint with Markus Biesinger)

    View EBRD Transition Report 2015-16 — View Chapter 4

    Private equity can be a useful source of external finance for companies. Perhaps more importantly, the active involvement of private equity fund managers can also assist investee companies to reach new customers, run operations more efficiently and improve their management of cash and inventories. Private equity support also tends to help companies to gain better access to credit.

  • Finance for Innovation

    Chapter 3 of EBRD Transition Report 2014

    (joint with Ralph De Haas)

    View EBRD Transition Report 2014 — View Chapter 3

    In the transition region, innovation often takes the form of adopting existing products and processes from more developed countries and adapting them to local conditions. The speed at which firms adopt new and existing technologies can explain up to a quarter of the differences in national income levels. However, technology adoption can be costly and firms may therefore need access to external finance. This chapter studies how local banking development alleviates financial constraints and facilitates technology adoption in the transition region.